THE 20-YEAR CYCLE

After Kennedy's assassination, this was a hot topic, but in the intervening years it has been forgotten. But --- given that Biden is currently 79 years of age, and has had death threats issued against him --- it just might be a good time to take another look.

The subject to which I am referring is the 20-YEAR CYCLE, which involves the fact that every 20 years starting in 1840 a President was elected who died in office.

To date, the Cycle has struck 7 times, 9 if you count THOMAS JEFFERSON (1800) and JAMES MONROE (1820) who --- while they did not die in office --- did die on precise anniversaries of the Declaration of Independence: JEFFERSON on the 50th (July the 4th 1826) and MONROE on the 55th (July the 4th 1831).

To date, victims of the Cycle have included (counting JEFFERSON and MONROE):

THOMAS JEFFERSON (1800): He did not die in office, but did die exactly on the 50th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence; significantly, he had written it. Unbeknownst to him, his political arch-rival, John Adams, died on the very same day. Adams' last words were "Jefferson still lives," unaware that Jefferson had already passed away hours earlier.

JAMES MONROE (1820): He, too, did not die in office, but died 5 years to the day (60 months exactly) after Jefferson.

WILLIAM HENRY HARRISON (1840): After delivering the longest inaugural address in history in freezing weather, Harrison died of pneumonia one month later.

ABRAHAM LINCOLN (1860): Having completed his first four years in office, Lincoln was assassinated in the inaugural year of his second term.

JAMES ABRAM GARFIELD (1880): Garfield was shot on July 2nd of his inaugural year and lingered for 48 days before dying on September 19th.

WILLIAM McKINLEY (1900): He had already completed one term when assassinated at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York, in 1901.

WARREN GAMALIEL HARDING (1920): He died of a heart attack on his way to Alaska 2 years into his administration.

FRANKLIN DELANO ROOSEVELT (1940): He had already served three terms (there were no term limits then) when he died of natural causes in the inaugural year of his fourth term.

JOHN FITZGERALD KENNEDY (1960): He was famously assassinated in Dallas only 2 years into his administration.

RONALD WILSON REAGAN (1980): Reagan managed to beat the Cycle, but even so was shot by John W. Hinkley as he was exiting a Washington hotel on March 30th 1981. The bullet lodged within an inch of his heart, and because of his age (he was 70), surgeons didn't think he would make it; not only did he survive, he joked about it, telling surgeons, "I hope you guys are all Republicans."

GEORGE WALKER BUSH (2000): Bush also beat the Cycle, but strangely became President without winning either the popular vote or the electoral vote; he was, in essence, appointed President. Thus, he was the never-elected-President who became President. The count was evenly split in both the popular and electoral categories, and a recount of "hanging chads" and "dimpled ballots" in Florida didn't resolve the issue. The final decision was ultimately thrown to the Supreme Court, and the Court decided in favor of BUSH.

Because REAGAN and BUSH survived the Cycle, most people came to assume that the Cycle was over, --- but rumors of its demise may be premature.

JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN JR. (2020) is now 79 years old, and has had numerous threats leveled against him by Trump supporters who are convinced, however incorrectly, that he had somehow stolen the election.

To date, all victims of the Cycle who actually died in office did so in inaugural years except HARDING and KENNEDY, who each managed to get 2 years.

Both JEFFERSON and MONROE died in July; both HARRISON and LINCOLN in the month of April; and both GARFIELD and McKINLEY in September. The pattern formed by the months in which the first six victims of the Cycle died then was July, July; April, April; and September, September. Entering the 20th Century, HARDING died in August; ROOSEVELT in April; and KENNEDY in November. REAGAN was shot in the month of March but survived, only to die years later in the month of June. As of this writing, BUSH is still living, as is BIDEN. If there is a pattern, it is too premature to see where it is going.

Did the Cycle strike for the final time with KENNEDY? Or has the stage been set for it to strike again?

All we can do is wait. And see what happens.

Stay tuned.